Modelling the Hatching Success of Sea Turtle Eggs Using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) for Conservation Oriented Ecotourism
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31849/digitalzone.v16i2.28856Keywords:
LSTM, MAE, RMSE, Conservation, Sea Turtle, Ecoturism, Mangkai, AnambasAbstract
This study proposes a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to predict the hatching success of sea turtle eggs in the Anambas Islands Marine Conservation Area, Indonesia. Leveraging nesting data (2022–2024) provided by LKKPN Pekanbaru and associated environmental variables, the model’s performance was assessed across various configurations of time steps (2, 5, 7, 30, and 45 days) and data splits (ranging from 60:40 to 90:10). The optimal configuration—7-day time step with a 60:40 train-test split—yielded RMSE = 17.90, MAE = 8.67, and R² = 0.34. Results revealed strong seasonal nesting trends and statistically significant interspecies differences in incubation periods (p < 0.05). While the model demonstrated high predictive accuracy for standard incubation durations (30–45 days), performance declined in extreme cases, highlighting the need for location-specific environmental data. This research illustrates the practical application of LSTM for ecological time series forecasting and provides a machine learning framework to support decision-making in ecotourism scheduling and marine conservation planning in island-based coastal ecosystems
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