Analisis Nonparametrik Laju Deforestasi dengan Model Spline Truncated Berbasis Faktor Sosial Ekonomi di Indonesiaic Analysis of Deforestation Rate with Truncated Spline Model Based on Socio-Economic Factors in Indonesia)

Abstract

Indonesia is known as the "lungs of the world" due to its vast tropical rainforests, which play a crucial role in absorbing carbon dioxide and maintaining global climate stability. However, the sustainability of Indonesia's forests is increasingly threatened by population growth, agricultural land expansion, and the influx of foreign direct investment—defined as capital inflow from abroad into Indonesia in the form of physical assets or corporate ownership—which can lead to land-use changes and potentially accelerate deforestation if not managed sustainably. These factors have caused fluctuations in the deforestation rate over the past twelve years. This study aims to model the deforestation rate by considering relevant social, economic, and environmental variables. The method used is nonparametric truncated spline regression with a single knot point, which satisfies the assumptions of identically distributed, independent, and normally distributed residuals. The model explains 64.20% of the variation in deforestation rates, while the remaining variation is influenced by other factors outside the model. Forest cover area has been proven to have a significant effect on deforestation. These findings highlight the importance of adaptive and evidence-based policies to reduce deforestation, particularly through forest protection and controlling land conversion, in order to preserve Indonesia's ecosystem sustainability and biodiversity.