Studi Prediktif Dampak Dukungan Jokowi Sebagai Outgoing President Terhadap Peluang Kemenangan Kandidat Presiden Yang Didukungnya Pada Pilpres 2024
Pola kasus: Obama, Vazquez, Uribe, SBY, Bachelet, Lula, dan Duterte
Keywords:
Outgoing president, Public approval ratings, President candidate, winning the election
Abstract
This paper aims to find the impact of outgoing president support to the winning probability of its endorsed candidate in presidential election, and predicts the winning probability of Jokowi’s endorsed candidate in Indonesia 2024 presidential election. By generalizing Obama, Vazquez, Uribe, SBY, Bachelet, Lula, and Duterte’s cases it is found that president candidates who endorsed by outgoing presidents with at least 50% public approval have 71% chance to winning the presidential election and 29% chance to lose, and with the public approval over 85% the probability is increase to 100%. The endorsed candidates who wins the election mostly were the minister of outgoing president whose contribute to the high approval ratings. Meanwhile, in the case of lost candidates the unfirm support from outgoing presiden and the candidate who already had been president with 28% approval ratings found as the causes. Through this generalization it is predicted that if Jokowi able to maintain his public approval rating at least 50%, and endorse one of his success ministers whom also come from the same party then in the 2024 Indonesia’s president election this candidate possibly will be the winner with 71% chance, also if his approval ratings reaching out over 85% the chance will be 100%.
Downloads
Download data is not yet available.
References
Buku:
Bryman, A. (2012). Social Research Methods (fourth). Oxford University Press.
Dahl, R. A. (1971). Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. In Yale University Press.
Jurnal:
Altman, D. (2010). The 2009 elections in Uruguay. Electoral Studies, 29(3), 533–536. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2010.04.014
Cohen, J. E. (2012). Interest Groups and Presidential Approval. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 42(3), 431–454. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1741-5705.2012.03988.x
de Souza, A. (2011). The politics of personality in Brazil. Journal of Democracy, 22(2), 76–88. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2011.0024
Edwards III, G. C., Mitchell, W., & Welch, R. (1995). Explaining Presidential Approval: The Significance of Issue Salience. American Journal of Political Science, 39(1), 108. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111760
Hamayotsu, K. (2015). Indonesia in 2014: The year of electing the people’s president. Asian Survey, 55(1), 174–183. https://doi.org/10.1525/AS.2015.55.1.174
Hernandez, C. G. (2017). The Philippines in 2016: The year that shook the world. Asian Survey, 57(1), 135–141. https://doi.org/10.1525/AS.2017.57.1.135
Pachón, M., & Hoskin, G. (2011). Kolombia 2010: An analysis of the legislative and presidential elections. Kolombia Internacional, 74, 9–26.
Passarelli, G. (2011). Presidential and Congressional Elections in Chile , December 2009 and January 2010. European Review of Latin America and Caribbean Studies, 91, 71–80.
Tan, P. J. (2013). Yudhoyono’s legacy: Between politics and principle. Current History, 112(755), 230–235. https://doi.org/10.1525/curh.2013.112.755.230
Quiroga, M. M. (2012). The Concertación’s Defeat in Chili’s 2009–2010 Presidential Elections. Latin American Politics and Society, 54(2). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2012.00154.x
Sides, J., Tesler, M., & Vavreck, L. (2017). How trump lost and won. Journal of Democracy, 28(2), 34–44. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2017.0022
Laman Web
Detik.com. (2014, May 8). Adu Pendapat Seputar Pilpres Menebak Arah “SBY Effect” Berefek . https://news.detik.com/berita/d-2576723/menebak-arah-sby-effect-berefek
Electionresources.org. (2010). Election Resources on the Internet: Federal Elections in Brazil . http://electionresources.org/br/president.php?election=2010
Kompas.com. (2014, July 1). JK: Dulu SBY Pecat Prabowo, Kenapa Sekarang Dukung? https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2014/07/01/1414590/JK.Dulu.SBY.Pecat.Prabowo.Kenapa.Sekarang.Dukung
Kompas.com. (2022a, October 31). Kilas Sanjungan Prabowo untuk Jokowi: dari Presiden Terbaik hingga soal Lawatan ke Ukraina. https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2022/10/31/07023861/kilas-sanjungan-prabowo-untuk-jokowi-dari-presiden-terbaik-hingga-soal
Kompas.com. (2022b, December 22). Survei Charta Politika: 47,5 Persen Responden Anggap Pemerintahan Jokowi Lebih Baik Dibandingkan SBY. https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2022/12/22/16023211/survei-charta-politika-475-persen-responden-anggap-pemerintahan-jokowi-lebih
Kompas TV. (2022, August 5). Prabowo Mau Punya Kabinet Seperti Jokowi Jika Jadi Presiden. https://www.kompas.tv/article/316098/prabowo-mau-punya-kabinet-seperti-jokowi-jika-jadi-presiden
MercoPress. (2011, August 9). Chile’s Piñera approval rating plummets to the lowest of any president since 1990 . https://en.mercopress.com/2011/08/09/chile-s-pinera-approval-rating-plummets-to-the-lowest-of-any-president-since-1990
Nasional Tempo.co. (2022, July 11). Survei Indikator: Tingkat Kepuasan Publik Terhadap Kinerja Jokowi Naik Jadi 67,5 Persen . https://nasional.tempo.co/read/1610919/survei-indikator-tingkat-kepuasan-publik-terhadap-kinerja-jokowi-naik-jadi-675-persen
Newsweek. (2022, July 17). Duterte Banned From Running for Presidency Again. https://www.newsweek.com/duterte-banned-running-presidency-again-1027387
PulseAsia. (2022). Performance Ratings of President Rodrigo Roa Duterte September 2016 to March 2022 – Pulse Asia Research Inc. https://pulseasia.ph/performance-ratings-of-president-rodrigo-roa-duterte-september-2016-to-march-2022/
Reuters. (2009, November 29). Former guerrilla wins Uruguay presidential run-off . https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uruguay-election-idUSTRE5AT03L20091130
Reuters. (2014, November 29). Uruguayan ruling party’s Vazquez wins presidential election | Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-uruguay-election-idUKKCN0JE04320141130
Statista. (2021a). Approval rate of presidents in Chile from 2002 to 2018. https://www.statista.com/statistics/782098/presidents-approval-rate-chile/
Statista. (2021b, July 5). Approval rate of presidents in Brazil 2018 | Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/781916/presidents-approval-rate-brazil/
Strangio, S. (2022a, March 24). Marcos Jr. Receives Electoral Endorsement From President Duterte’s Party – The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/marcos-jr-receives-electoral-endorsement-from-president-dutertes-party/
Strangio, S. (2022b, May 10). Provisional Results Show Landslide Marcos Victory in Philippine Election – The Diplomat. The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/provisional-results-show-landslide-marcos-victory-in-philippine-election/
Tempo. (2014, July 2). SBY Dukung Prabowo, Relawan Jokowi-JK: Mengerikan . https://pemilu.tempo.co/read/589680/sby-dukung-prabowo-relawan-jokowi-jk-mengerikan
The Guardian. (2010a, June 21). Juan Manuel Santos wins Colombia presidential election . https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/jun/21/juan-manuel-santos-colombia-president
The Guardian. (2010b, December 31). Lula era comes to an end in Brazil | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/31/brazil-lula-era-ends
VoA Indonesia. (2014, May 16). Dahlan Iskan Menangkan Konvensi Partai Demokrat. https://www.voaindonesia.com/a/dahlan-iskan-menangkan-konvensi-partai-demokrat/1915978.html
Thesis and report
De-Ferrari, I. (2014). For presidential candidates in Latin America , close ties to an outgoing president can increase the importance of the economy to voters. Blog LSE.
IRI. (2010). Colombia Pre-Election Watch (Issue May).
LADB. (2009). Uruguayan Presidential Race Goes to Runoff.
Martins, J. P. (2010). Brazil’ s President-elect Dilma Rousseff Faces Challenge to Maintain Outgoing President Luiz Inà ¡ cio Lula da Silva ’ s Popularity. UNM Digital Repository, 11–12.
Bryman, A. (2012). Social Research Methods (fourth). Oxford University Press.
Dahl, R. A. (1971). Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. In Yale University Press.
Jurnal:
Altman, D. (2010). The 2009 elections in Uruguay. Electoral Studies, 29(3), 533–536. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2010.04.014
Cohen, J. E. (2012). Interest Groups and Presidential Approval. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 42(3), 431–454. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1741-5705.2012.03988.x
de Souza, A. (2011). The politics of personality in Brazil. Journal of Democracy, 22(2), 76–88. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2011.0024
Edwards III, G. C., Mitchell, W., & Welch, R. (1995). Explaining Presidential Approval: The Significance of Issue Salience. American Journal of Political Science, 39(1), 108. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111760
Hamayotsu, K. (2015). Indonesia in 2014: The year of electing the people’s president. Asian Survey, 55(1), 174–183. https://doi.org/10.1525/AS.2015.55.1.174
Hernandez, C. G. (2017). The Philippines in 2016: The year that shook the world. Asian Survey, 57(1), 135–141. https://doi.org/10.1525/AS.2017.57.1.135
Pachón, M., & Hoskin, G. (2011). Kolombia 2010: An analysis of the legislative and presidential elections. Kolombia Internacional, 74, 9–26.
Passarelli, G. (2011). Presidential and Congressional Elections in Chile , December 2009 and January 2010. European Review of Latin America and Caribbean Studies, 91, 71–80.
Tan, P. J. (2013). Yudhoyono’s legacy: Between politics and principle. Current History, 112(755), 230–235. https://doi.org/10.1525/curh.2013.112.755.230
Quiroga, M. M. (2012). The Concertación’s Defeat in Chili’s 2009–2010 Presidential Elections. Latin American Politics and Society, 54(2). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2012.00154.x
Sides, J., Tesler, M., & Vavreck, L. (2017). How trump lost and won. Journal of Democracy, 28(2), 34–44. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2017.0022
Laman Web
Detik.com. (2014, May 8). Adu Pendapat Seputar Pilpres Menebak Arah “SBY Effect” Berefek . https://news.detik.com/berita/d-2576723/menebak-arah-sby-effect-berefek
Electionresources.org. (2010). Election Resources on the Internet: Federal Elections in Brazil . http://electionresources.org/br/president.php?election=2010
Kompas.com. (2014, July 1). JK: Dulu SBY Pecat Prabowo, Kenapa Sekarang Dukung? https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2014/07/01/1414590/JK.Dulu.SBY.Pecat.Prabowo.Kenapa.Sekarang.Dukung
Kompas.com. (2022a, October 31). Kilas Sanjungan Prabowo untuk Jokowi: dari Presiden Terbaik hingga soal Lawatan ke Ukraina. https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2022/10/31/07023861/kilas-sanjungan-prabowo-untuk-jokowi-dari-presiden-terbaik-hingga-soal
Kompas.com. (2022b, December 22). Survei Charta Politika: 47,5 Persen Responden Anggap Pemerintahan Jokowi Lebih Baik Dibandingkan SBY. https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2022/12/22/16023211/survei-charta-politika-475-persen-responden-anggap-pemerintahan-jokowi-lebih
Kompas TV. (2022, August 5). Prabowo Mau Punya Kabinet Seperti Jokowi Jika Jadi Presiden. https://www.kompas.tv/article/316098/prabowo-mau-punya-kabinet-seperti-jokowi-jika-jadi-presiden
MercoPress. (2011, August 9). Chile’s Piñera approval rating plummets to the lowest of any president since 1990 . https://en.mercopress.com/2011/08/09/chile-s-pinera-approval-rating-plummets-to-the-lowest-of-any-president-since-1990
Nasional Tempo.co. (2022, July 11). Survei Indikator: Tingkat Kepuasan Publik Terhadap Kinerja Jokowi Naik Jadi 67,5 Persen . https://nasional.tempo.co/read/1610919/survei-indikator-tingkat-kepuasan-publik-terhadap-kinerja-jokowi-naik-jadi-675-persen
Newsweek. (2022, July 17). Duterte Banned From Running for Presidency Again. https://www.newsweek.com/duterte-banned-running-presidency-again-1027387
PulseAsia. (2022). Performance Ratings of President Rodrigo Roa Duterte September 2016 to March 2022 – Pulse Asia Research Inc. https://pulseasia.ph/performance-ratings-of-president-rodrigo-roa-duterte-september-2016-to-march-2022/
Reuters. (2009, November 29). Former guerrilla wins Uruguay presidential run-off . https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uruguay-election-idUSTRE5AT03L20091130
Reuters. (2014, November 29). Uruguayan ruling party’s Vazquez wins presidential election | Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-uruguay-election-idUKKCN0JE04320141130
Statista. (2021a). Approval rate of presidents in Chile from 2002 to 2018. https://www.statista.com/statistics/782098/presidents-approval-rate-chile/
Statista. (2021b, July 5). Approval rate of presidents in Brazil 2018 | Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/781916/presidents-approval-rate-brazil/
Strangio, S. (2022a, March 24). Marcos Jr. Receives Electoral Endorsement From President Duterte’s Party – The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/marcos-jr-receives-electoral-endorsement-from-president-dutertes-party/
Strangio, S. (2022b, May 10). Provisional Results Show Landslide Marcos Victory in Philippine Election – The Diplomat. The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/provisional-results-show-landslide-marcos-victory-in-philippine-election/
Tempo. (2014, July 2). SBY Dukung Prabowo, Relawan Jokowi-JK: Mengerikan . https://pemilu.tempo.co/read/589680/sby-dukung-prabowo-relawan-jokowi-jk-mengerikan
The Guardian. (2010a, June 21). Juan Manuel Santos wins Colombia presidential election . https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/jun/21/juan-manuel-santos-colombia-president
The Guardian. (2010b, December 31). Lula era comes to an end in Brazil | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/31/brazil-lula-era-ends
VoA Indonesia. (2014, May 16). Dahlan Iskan Menangkan Konvensi Partai Demokrat. https://www.voaindonesia.com/a/dahlan-iskan-menangkan-konvensi-partai-demokrat/1915978.html
Thesis and report
De-Ferrari, I. (2014). For presidential candidates in Latin America , close ties to an outgoing president can increase the importance of the economy to voters. Blog LSE.
IRI. (2010). Colombia Pre-Election Watch (Issue May).
LADB. (2009). Uruguayan Presidential Race Goes to Runoff.
Martins, J. P. (2010). Brazil’ s President-elect Dilma Rousseff Faces Challenge to Maintain Outgoing President Luiz Inà ¡ cio Lula da Silva ’ s Popularity. UNM Digital Repository, 11–12.
Published
2023-01-31
How to Cite
Hakim, A., & Zamhasari, Z. (2023). Studi Prediktif Dampak Dukungan Jokowi Sebagai Outgoing President Terhadap Peluang Kemenangan Kandidat Presiden Yang Didukungnya Pada Pilpres 2024: Pola kasus: Obama, Vazquez, Uribe, SBY, Bachelet, Lula, dan Duterte. JOELS: Journal of Election and Leadership , 4(1), 12-21. https://doi.org/10.31849/joels.v4i1.12446
Section
Articles
