Pemodelan Time Series Harga Minyak Goreng Curah di Kota Padang dan Bukittinggi: Pendekatan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31849/6qrg0d34Keywords:
ARIMA Model; Bulk Cooking Oil, Prices Forecasting; Price FluctuationAbstract
Bulk cooking oil is one of the strategic commodities in the cities of Padang and Bukittinggi. The urgency of this study lies in the highly price fluctuations driven by supply and demand dynamics, thereby requiring an accurate forecasting model. This study employed the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting method using data from May 1, 2025, to May 1, 2026. The results demonstrate that the forecasting models for bulk cooking oil prices in Padang and Bukittinggi are ARIMA (1,1,1) and ARIMA (3,1,3), respectively. These findings indicate that higher price dynamics occur in Bukittinggi. Furthermore, the forecasting results show that bulk cooking oil prices in both Padang and Bukittinggi are projected to increase until July 2026.
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