Innovation in Inferential Statistics Learning: Predict, Observe, and Explain (POE)-Based Teaching Materials to Optimizing Adaptive Reasoning

Ria Deswita; Febria   Ningsih

doi:10.31849/64kww169

Authors

Ria Deswita Institut Agama Islam Negeri Kerinci, Jambi, Indonesia
Febria Ningsih Institut Agama Islam Negeri Kerinci, Jambi, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31849/64kww169

Keywords:

Predict–Observe–Explain (POE) Inferential statistics Adaptive reasoning Critical thinking skills Skills in statistics, Predict–Observe–Explain (POE) , Inferential statistics , Adaptive reasoning, Critical thinking skills, Skills in statistics

Abstract

Inferential statistics is a cornerstone of higher education mathematics that equips students with essential skills for evidence-based decision-making, yet many undergraduates continue to face persistent difficulties in applying adaptive reasoning, particularly in hypothesis testing, regression analysis, and data interpretation. Conventional lecture-based and textbook-driven approaches tend to focus on computational procedures, leaving a crucial gap in cultivating reasoning and reflective thinking. Addressing this challenge, the present study developed Predict-Observe-Explain (POE)-based teaching materials explicitly designed to optimize adaptive reasoning in inferential statistics learning. Using a developmental research design guided by the Hannafin and Peck model, the study progressed through needs assessment, design, development, implementation, and continuous evaluation. Validity was established through expert reviews of content accuracy, pedagogical coherence, and presentation quality, while practicality was assessed via small- and large-group trials with undergraduate mathematics education students at IAIN Kerinci. Findings demonstrated high validity (90.75%) and acceptable practicality (77.6%), affirming the feasibility of integrating POE-based materials into undergraduate statistics instruction. By embedding prediction, observation, and explanation tasks into statistical problem-solving, the materials promoted students’ logical reasoning and improved their ability to justify conclusions. This study extends the POE approach beyond its common use in science education to abstract mathematical contexts, providing an empirically validated instructional innovation that fosters higher-order reasoning. The findings contribute to enhancing curriculum design in mathematics education and support global priorities for advancing critical thinking, problem-solving, and data literacy as central competencies for twenty-first century learning.

Author Biographies

Ria Deswita, Institut Agama Islam Negeri Kerinci, Jambi, Indonesia

Ria Deswita is a senior lecturer in the Mathematics Education Department at Institut Agama Islam Negeri (IAIN) Kerinci, Indonesia. She earned her Bachelor's degree in Mathematics Education from Universitas Jambi in 2012 and completed her Master's degree in Mathematics Education at Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia, Bandung, in 2015. Her research interests encompass mathematics education, mathematical proficiency, learning strategies, learning obstacles, development of instructional materials, and technology integration in mathematics teaching and learning. She has been actively engaged in teaching, research, and scholarly publication, demonstrating a strong commitment to advancing mathematics education and enhancing student learning outcomes in higher education.
Febria Ningsih , Institut Agama Islam Negeri Kerinci, Jambi, Indonesia

Febria Ningsih is a senior lecturer in the Mathematics Education Department at Institut Agama Islam Negeri (IAIN) Kerinci, Indonesia. She earned her Bachelor's degree in Mathematics Education from Universitas Bung Hatta, Padang, in 2011 and completed her Master's degree in Mathematics Education at Universitas Negeri Padang in 2014. Her academic interests center on mathematics education, innovative pedagogical approaches, and the development of students’ learning competencies. She has been actively involved in research and scholarly publications, particularly those related to improving instructional practices and supporting effective mathematics learning in higher education.

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